General
Publications & Data
Join the conversation
Social Links
Social Links
Research Notes are more in-depth analyses undertaken by BER economists and consultants.
Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients.
The Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab is a unit at the BER, focussing on generating policy-relevant work and capacity building to achieve economic success in South Africa. This work is freely available to access on our website.
Against the backdrop of unusual uncertainty, this note outlines three possible scenarios for 2018.
Abstract: This presentation-style note summarises the fourth quarter business survey results. Given the many sentiment-negative factors, confidence remained low despite an improvement in the average activity indicator in Q4. Furthermore, albeit that activity improved, respondents reported increased pressure on profitability.
Read MoreAt its final scheduled meeting of 2017, the MPC kept the repo policy interest rate unchanged at 6.75% (prime rate at 10.25%).
In his first, and potentially only, budget policy speech, Minister Gigaba presented an “honest” assessment of SA’s poor macroeconomic outlook and - in the absence of corrective measures - the dire consequences this will have for the fiscal balances.
Read MoreThis presentation-style note summarises the third quarter business survey results. While business confidence recovered partially, business conditions remained tough and underlying results signal very weak effective demand. The results are consistent with annual average GDP growth of below 1% for this year.
Read MoreThe SA economy exited the technical recession in 2017Q2 with GDP growing at a faster than expected rate of 2.5% q-o-q (saar).
Against the overwhelming financial market consensus - and our expectation - for an unchanged repo rate, the MPC reduced the policy interest rate by 25bps to 6.75% (prime rate down to 10.25%).
A specific policy-related issue that keeps rearing its head, both domestically and internationally, is the debate around the need for and/or the role of government-owned financial institutions, particularly government-owned banks. At the recent ANC policy conference, delegates have given the government an ultimatum to ensure that a state bank is up and running within the next six months. In light of this resolution, this comment briefly unpacks the motivation for and case against the creation of a state-owned bank.
Read MoreBusiness conditions remained weak in Q2. The survey results indicate that at least year-on-year GDP growth in all likelihood slowed even further during the quarter. In fact, it is possible that GDP growth for the full year will be even lower than the 0.3% realised last year.
Read MoreIf ever there was any doubt that the SA economy is in serious trouble, the shocking 2017Q1 GDP figures removed any uncertainty about the extent of the malaise. Stats SA reported that GDP declined by 0.7% (q-o-q) in the first quarter.
Read MoreThe performance of the South African manufacturing sector has remained dismal after an initial recovery from the economic recession in 2008/09. This short comment unpacks the most recent manufacturing output data and delves into some of the underlying reasons why, despite an apparent alleviation of supply-side constraints through last year, manufacturing output has continued to disappoint.
Read MoreAs widely speculated over the past week and indeed for months, President Jacob Zuma announced a broad-based cabinet reshuffle late on Thursday evening. At this early stage, our judgement is that the downside risks to the domestic economy have increased notably over the past 24 hours.
Read MoreThis week’s sharp reversal of the strengthening trend for the rand exchange rate dominated the latest MPC interest rate statement. In line with our and the financial market expectation, the MPC decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 7% (prime rate at 10.5%).
Read MoreSummary text, with a link to a video presentation, of the key results and implications of the latest round of BER business survey results in 2017Q1.
The SA economy stalled in 2016 with growth of only 0.3% recorded, the third year in a row that growth slowed. Stats SA reported that GDP shrunk by 0.3% q-o-q in 2016Q4, down from growth of (an upwardly revised) 0.4% in the third quarter.
Read MoreAs expected, the major Budget headlines concern the tax proposals as no significant new expenditure initiatives were outlined.
