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Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients. The emphasis is to provide our interpretation of important economic events, such as South African Reserve Bank interest rate statements, and key data releases, including GDP growth figures.
The underlying survey results are consistent with a mild improvement in growth during the fourth quarter, even with the slight decline in the overall RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI). The BER expects that Q3 GDP (released 4 December) will register a positive growth rate (on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted and annualised basis). According to the past relationship between the survey results and GDP growth, year-on-year growth is likely to remain relatively weak in the second half of 2018. We would need to see a sustained, broad-based increase in the BCI for economic growth to improve noticeably next year and beyond.
