Inflation Expectations

Inflation expectations
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Inflation Expectations

To help carry out its inflation targeting mandate, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) commissioned the BER in 2001 to conduct a quarterly inflation expectations survey. Four social groups are covered in the survey, namely financial analysts, business people, trade union officials and households. The results of the Inflation Expectations Survey are provided in a quarterly report that is accompanied by an excel file containing the historic survey data. The inflation expectations for the current and next two years and forecast of various other economic variables (such as economic growth, the rand / dollar exchange rate and wage increases) of financial analysts, business people, trade union officials and households are available separately. Click here for information on the survey method.

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Inflation Expectations (History Data), 2024

Date Uploaded: December 12 2024 10:00


On average, analysts, business people and trade union officials think that consumer inflation will now stabilise at the 4.5%-target midpoint. They foresee it to be around this level from 2024 to 2026. Even in the longer run (the next five years), they foresee inflation practically at the target midpoint. The one-year-ahead inflation expectations of households ticked down by 0.3 percentage points (% pts) to 6.6%. As such, their expectations have drifted relatively sideways this year. On average, the three social groups still expect GDP growth of only 1% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025. In the case of salaries and wages, the three groups now anticipate these to increase by less than 5% this year and next (4.8% and 4.9% respectively).