Inflation Expectations

Inflation expectations
Manufacturing
Retail
Other services
Building and construction

Inflation Expectations

To help carry out its inflation targeting mandate, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) commissioned the BER in 2001 to conduct a quarterly inflation expectations survey. Four social groups are covered in the survey, namely financial analysts, business people, trade union officials and households. The results of the Inflation Expectations Survey are provided in a quarterly report that is accompanied by an excel file containing the historic survey data. The inflation expectations for the current and next two years and forecast of various other economic variables (such as economic growth, the rand / dollar exchange rate and wage increases) of financial analysts, business people, trade union officials and households are available separately. Click here for information on the survey method.

Back to Documents

Inflation expectations, 2024-Q1

Date Uploaded: March 19 2024 10:00


In the first quarter of 2024, the average headline CPI inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade union officials receded by 0.3 percentage points (% pts) for both 2024 and 2025. The respondents now expect inflation to average 5.4% this year, 5.3% next year and 5.2% in 2026. Among the three social groups, only analysts expect that inflation will subside to below 5% and stabilise at 4.7% in 2025 and 2026. Business people and trade union officials foresee inflation getting stuck above 5%, even in 2026.