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Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients. The emphasis is to provide our interpretation of important economic events, such as South African Reserve Bank interest rate statements, and key data releases, including GDP growth figures.
Business confidence increased further from 46 in the third quarter to 51 in the fourth quarter of 2014. Activity continued to recover. Closing the year on a stronger foundation is a good starting point for next year. In the absence of another turbulent year in the labour market and sustained Eskom load shedding, the economy looks good for growth of around 2.5% in 2015 - not a great outcome but nonetheless an improvement on this year. The moderation in manufacturing and retail selling prices also supports the BER’s forecast of PPI inflation slowing from 7.6% in the first quarter of 2014 to about 5.5% in the first quarter of 2015 and CPI inflation from 5.9% to about 5.1% over the same time period.
