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Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients. The emphasis is to provide our interpretation of important economic events, such as South African Reserve Bank interest rate statements, and key data releases, including GDP growth figures.
This comment summarizes some specific insights from cross-cutting trends observed in the third quarter round of BER surveys in order to provide a snapshot of the latest developments in the real economy. On balance, the 2011Q3 survey results sensitises one to the possibility that growth in underlying demand might be running out of steam faster than anticipated. Another key trend of the results is that uncertainty has increased notably in Q3. At this stage our reading of the results is that it signals a continuation of the Q2 growth soft-patch and that we will continue to muddle through until something provides the economic recovery with the necessary second wind.
