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Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients. The emphasis is to provide our interpretation of important economic events, such as South African Reserve Bank interest rate statements, and key data releases, including GDP growth figures.
The aim of this note is to summarize some specific insights and trends observed in the 2011Q4 round of BER surveys as a first indication of developments in the real economy. On balance, the survey results point towards an acceleration in GDP growth in 2011Q4 - relative to the third quarter. However, the fact that business confidence remains low highlights the downside risks to the growth outlook, particularly given the current global economic environment and threatening impact of the European crisis.
