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Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients. The emphasis is to provide our interpretation of important economic events, such as South African Reserve Bank interest rate statements, and key data releases, including GDP growth figures.
The results foreshadow that we may already be in a cyclical upturn and bodes well for GDP growth from 2018 onwards. While overall GDP growth is likely to moderate in Q1, considering the survey results, this may not necessarily be the case for growth in GDP excluding the primary sector. Selling price indicators in the Q1 results are consistent with low consumer inflation and this should support sales volumes this year. Expected indicators for Q2 suggest contained VAT impact (at least initially).
